From: eskrima-digest-owner@hpwsrt.cup.hp.com To: eskrima-digest@hpwsrt.cup.hp.com Subject: Inayan_Eskrima/FMA-Digest V8 #503 Reply-To: eskrima@hpwsrt.cup.hp.com Errors-To: eskrima-digest-owner@hpwsrt.cup.hp.com Precedence: Inayan_Eskrima/FMA-Digest Fri, 23 Nov 2001 Vol 08 : Num 503 In this issue: eskrima: Stratfor: The Terrorist Diaspora eskrima: yet more old pics eskrima: unrest in the Philippines eskrima: Americans in the P.I. eskrima: . ========================================================================== Eskrima-Digest, serving the Internet since June 1994. 1200 members strong! Copyright 1994-2001: Ray Terry and Martial Arts Resource The premier internet discussion forum devoted to Filipino Martial Arts. Provided in memory of Mangisursuro Michael G. Inay (1944-2000). http://InayanEskrima.com Replying to this message will NOT unsubscribe you. To unsubscribe, send "unsubscribe eskrima-digest" (no quotes) in the body (top line, left justified) of a "plain text" e-mail addressed to majordomo@hpwsrt.cup.hp.com. To send e-mail to this list use eskrima@hpwsrt.cup.hp.com See the Filipino Martial Arts (FMA) FAQ and the online search engine for back issues of the Eskrima-Digest at http://MartialArtsResource.com Mabuhay ang eskrima! ---------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Denny" Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 16:34:33 -0800 Subject: eskrima: Stratfor: The Terrorist Diaspora Woof All: Given that Ray has cleared this for the ED, here it is. See www.Stratfor.com Woof, Crafty Dog - -------------------------------- Afghanistan: Extremist Diaspora Will Fuel Expanded Conflict 2045 GMT, 011121 Summary The Taliban's withdrawal into the mountains is making Afghanistan an ineffective base for militant Muslims. Many foreign-born members of al Qaeda and the Taliban, cut off from their infrastructure and under attack from Afghans and U.S. forces, will try to leave the country. A number of these operatives will attempt to return to their home countries - or go to others not under U.S. bombardment -- and resume militant activities. Analysis Some 50 Filipinos suspected of training with al Qaeda in Afghanistan have started slipping back into the Philippines through mostly Muslim-dominated islands in the south, according to immigration authorities cited by the Philippine Daily Inquirer. A Philippine government source told the paper the suspected terrorists began arriving soon after the Northern Alliance started overrunning Taliban strongholds in Afghanistan. The Taliban's retreat over the past two weeks has made Afghanistan a much less effective base for militant Muslims. Many foreign-born members of al Qaeda and the Taliban will try to leave the country, although many won't get past Pakistan or even the Afghan border. Still others will be apprehended when they arrive in their home countries, but some will slip through the cracks and resume operations. The State of the War The recent withdrawal of Taliban forces from strategic areas of Afghanistan is a promising turn for the United States. But it is still not clear whether the retreat was part of a larger Taliban strategy. Whatever happens in Afghanistan, the United States must not lose sight of its top goal: preventing further attacks within America's borders. Analysis The war that began Sept. 11 clearly has taken an important turn in Afghanistan. But although recent events in the Afghan theater of operations were significant, it is not clear whether they represent a definitive conclusion to the war as a whole. The Taliban's position in Afghanistan has been upended, with the group losing control of about 70 percent of the country. Taliban loyalists who are not surrounded in Kunduz or Kandahar have taken to the hills to begin a more guerrilla-style war. Other members of the country's majority Pushtun population, of which many were only marginal Taliban sympathizers to begin with, have simply switched loyalties to the Northern Alliance. But many of the Taliban's foreign fighters are not surrendering. These fighters, known as "Afghan Arabs," include not just Arab nationals but also Filipinos, Chinese Uighers, Indonesians, Malaysians, Bosnians and Chechens. Some have lived in Afghanistan since the 1980s while others moved in once the Taliban took control. Estimates of their number range from 10,000 to 25,000. Part of their devotion may be attributed to religious fervor, but some of it is likely due to fear of reprisal from vengeful Afghans. Hundreds of foreign fighters have reportedly been executed by Northern Alliance troops since their advance. It is also apparent that Afghanistan is no longer the ideal base for extremist groups that it once was. Training camps, munitions depots and communications equipment have all been destroyed, along with the government that sheltered extremist fighters. These factors will likely force many Afghan Arabs to leave the country. A similar situation existed in the early 1990s, after the Soviets left Afghanistan and Kabul's communist regime crumbled. Large numbers of well-trained Afghan Arabs discovered they weren't especially welcome in the country, and many returned to their home states. These returnees formed the core of extremist groups such as the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, the Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines and Algeria's Islamic Salvation Front. Some of these extremists returned to Afghanistan once the Taliban took power while others joined Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda group. Although a similar exodus may be attempted now, getting out of Pakistan isn't easy. Northern Alliance loyalists and Pushtun turncoats are combing the hills while U.S. and British special forces are manning roadblocks throughout the south. Escaping north means braving the desert in southern Turkmenistan, army troops in Uzbekistan or Russian border guards in Tajikistan. Human smugglers can breach the Iranian border, but the Tehran government is decidedly anti-Taliban. The best option is eastward through Afghanistan's 1,500-mile border with Pakistan. But despite a multitude of routes, this option is no longer as simple as it was three months ago. Pakistan has reinforced its border with 20,000 soldiers and is likely using the recent $80 million in U.S. aid for equipment such as sensors and night-vision gear. Things get marginally easier for militants upon their arrival in Pakistan, as the Taliban have a significant support network in the country. But sea routes out of Pakistan -- the most common and anonymous method of transportation -- are now being patrolled by the U.S. Navy, with warships searching merchant vessels leaving the country, according to the Evening Standard, a British daily. Given enough time and money, and with the general chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it can be assumed that perhaps no more than 1,000 to 2,000 Afghan Arabs will escape to their home countries. These fighters may find shelter in numerous areas: Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the other Persian Gulf states, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Russia (Chechnya), Yemen, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, western China, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Bosnia, Sudan and Somalia. Most of the Middle Eastern states have extensive internal security apparatuses, capable of monitoring and intercepting returning extremists. A handful of fighters may be able to slip into each nation, but large-scale returns are unlikely. In Asia, both Malaysia and China have strict internal security. Conversely the Philippines and Indonesia are relatively easy to penetrate; Indonesia has lax border security and the southern Philippines is the site of a large-scale Muslim insurgency. But relatively few Afghan Arabs are Asian, and non-Asians would be highly conspicuous. Somalia and Chechnya are realistically the two areas where significant numbers of Afghan Arabs could set up camp. Their relatively close location to Afghanistan and already unstable situations would make it easier for large numbers of fighters to remain undetected. Both should expect to see significant inflows. In any event, an extremist rise in most of the various host countries should be expected as the evacuation from Afghanistan continues. The fighters will return with experience, training and a renewed network of contacts in other countries. The returnees will likely not take direct orders from bin Laden, al Qaeda or the Taliban. Communications will be monitored, and the al Qaeda network appears to be in some disarray. But wherever they end up, the fighters will adapt their skills and ideology to the local context and exploit existing political or military rifts. In most cases these actions will be consistent with al Qaeda's interests, and violence against host governments, foreign businesses or U.S. military personnel should be expected. One side effect of this dispersal may be the foundation of a second network of Islamic extremists. Just as the Soviet war against Afghanistan -- and the subsequent scattering of fighters -- produced a worldwide network of extremists, the American war in Afghanistan will produce a secondary network, one that might not be centered around Osama bin Laden ------------------------------ From: Ray Terry Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 17:22:51 PST Subject: eskrima: yet more old pics Just added a few more old (c 1900) pics from the RP to the website. http://martialartsresource.com/filipino/oldpics4.htm Ray Terry raymail@hpwsrt.cup.hp.com ------------------------------ From: Roland Isla Date: Fri, 23 Nov 2001 11:52:43 +0800 Subject: eskrima: unrest in the Philippines Greetings, Walter Vorhauer, you asked, " Now, who are these other 2 factions, the Islamic Liberation Front (sp?) and the other faction (who's name I can't think of right now?)? What are their ties to Abu Sayaff, if any??" The two main political secessionist groups in Mindanao are the MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front) and the MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front). Aside from political differences, one of the main differences between the MNLF and MILF is ethnicity. The MNLF is mainly Taosug while the MILF are predominantly Maguindanao. (The Taosugs, Maguindanaos, and Marinaos are the three largest Muslim groups in Mindanao. There are about 18 other ethnic groups like the Yakan and Samal. It is interesting to note how individuals from these groups relate to one another. The Taosugs, in particular are reputed to be the most fierce and aggressive. Friends of mine from Mindanao who hold workshops and conferences there have told me that if there is a Taosugs around, Yakans or Samals, or other groups keep theirs eyes down and will not speak. No matter how friendly, accommodating or open the Taosug may be.) The Abu Sayaf is just one of many bandit groups specializing in kidnappings. (BTW, another large kidnapping group based in Mindanao is called the Pentagon. They are also well known in the Philippines and their current battles with the Philippine military has uprooted tens of thousands of people of their homes and villages.) Their leadership, namely the Janjalani brothers, were supposedly trained in Afghanistan to fight the Russians (like many other Muslims of Arab, Egyptian, or Afghan descent, who are now being hunted as terrorists) under CIA sponsorship. (After this current Afghan war, I wonder how many more CIA trained and sponsored fighters will turn terrorist and bite the hand that fed them?) Their connection to the MNLF or MILF, officially the other two organizations don't approve of the Abu Sayaf. Though, their are persistent rumours that the MILF protects the Abu Sayaf and uses them to raise funds for their cause. Aside from Muslim secessionist groups, there are also Communist revolutionary groups (the NPA) in Mindanao and all over the country for that matter. You also asked, "And to the gentleman who stated that U.S. SF were already there doing there thing, you say they've been there for several weeks now taking on Abu Sayaf bandits, do you know their main objective (the U.S. SF) as a whole, were they invited by the Philippine government, did the US government cut a deal with the Philippine government to send troops over there?? And are U.S. SF there just to control the situation or curve the violence or what?? Could someone please clear up my confusion??" As Luis Pellicer stated, it is against our constitution for foreign troops to be directly involved in military operations. They are allowed in as "advisors." President Arroyo stated again today that American troops are not needed and the Philippine military will fight on its own. Now, if these advisors are taking a more hands on approach as they did in Vietnam and Latin America, then indeed they may already be involved. But for now, there is no evidence of that except for hearsay and what we call "tsismis" (rumours). In fact, the Philippine military began turning things around against the various groups well before the advisors arrived. Much of it had to do with the troops getting more experience and becoming more familiar to the area. Another factor was the decision to use the Philippine marines (arguably the best Philippine soldiers) instead of just the army and the notoriously unreliable PNP (Philippine National Police) special task forces. Much of this had to do with politics as Philippine army generals didn't want credit going to the marines who are just part of the Philippine navy. (There are other political issues involved. The Philippine military is highly politicized.) I have two friends serving in the marines, one in Basilan fighting the Abu Sayaf, and the other in Tawi Tawi. They tell me that their days are spent, 95% patrolling, fishing, playing volleyball and 5% shear terror in fire fights, or lying in ditches under the hot sun as bullets whizz by over their heads waiting for reinforcements to arrive. They said all of this matter-of-factly and with a smile on their faces. Having said all this, the Philippines has spent most of the last thirty years fighting large scale guerilla movements within our borders. Prior to that, the Philippine constabulary fought against the Huks, Colorums and various other indigenous groups. With all this experience, why do we have to bring in American advisors? Granted, the Americans have always brought in technical innovations to warfare. But, shouldn't the Philippine military have learned enough on its own that we should instead be teaching others how to fight a guerilla war? Of interest to FMA people, the Philippine marine group fighting in Basilan is the elite recon group many of whose members have received training in Pekiti Tirsia under Leo Gaje. FYI, arnis is not required training for any Philippine military or police group and members of this elite marine group were given the option of being trained in it. According to a recently graduated navy friend of mine, at the PMA (Philippine military academy), the martial arts taught are boxing, judo, karatedo and tae kwon do. Outside teachers are sometimes brought in to teach arnis, but only the most basic striking patterns. Though not strictly related to this aforementioned subject matter, at the Philippine Sports Commission, the martial arts taught are tae kwon do, judo, karetedo, boxing and silat but not arnis. Much of this has to do with the fact that all of the above sports (except arnis) have international competitions (ie., Southeast Asian Games) and the PSC trains competitors for them. There is no such competition for arnis. However, at most of the YMCA's in Metro Manila, they offer training in aikido, tae kwondo, etc, but not arnis. Why not arnis I asked? "Walang interesado" they responded. "No interest." So, why isn't arnis better promoted or more popular in its own home? I'll leave that to a future letter. Sincerely, Roland Isla ------------------------------ From: Cordon1964@cs.com Date: Fri, 23 Nov 2001 01:18:16 EST Subject: eskrima: Americans in the P.I. Greetings from a former jarhead. On the subject of Americans fighting in the P.I. Does that really surprise anyone? Do you really think we always lose so many people in training accidents? Take it from some one who`s been there when the enemy was called the NPA .We regularly went out on patrol with P.I. Marines in search of them. The brass never said that we were there to kill anyone, but when you send a squad of marines out on a week long patrol fully loaded with ammo ,you get the idea. ------------------------------ From: Ray Terry Date: Fri, 23 Nov 2001 10:49:09 PST Subject: eskrima: . ------------------------------ End of Inayan_Eskrima/FMA-Digest V8 #503 **************************************** To unsubscribe from the eskrima-digest send the command: unsubscribe eskrima-digest -or- unsubscribe eskrima-digest your.old@address in the BODY (top line, left justified) of a "plain text" e-mail addressed to majordomo@hpwsrt.cup.hp.com. Old digest issues are available via ftp://ftp.martialartsresource.com. Copyright 1994-2001: Ray Terry and the Martial Arts Resource Standard disclaimers apply. Remember 9-11!